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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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